There are a variety of synonyms for the word "surmises" that can be used to convey similar meanings. Some possibilities include "guesses," "speculations," "conjectures," "inferrences," and "assumptions." Each of these words suggests some level of uncertainty or lack of complete information, as they all imply a certain amount of interpretation or extrapolation based on available evidence. Other related words might include "hypotheses," "theories," or "postulations," all of which suggest a more structured or formalized line of thought. Regardless of which term is chosen, each connotes a sort of intellectual curiosity or inquiry, suggesting that the speaker or writer is seeking to understand something that is not immediately clear or obvious.